Section 3
Market Landscape
Executive Orders, DOD memos, FAR/DFARS changes, the Army PAE transformation, and procurement forecast analysis. With real scan data from Army AMC, PEO Enterprise, Navy Combined LRAE, NAVSUP, Air Force AFLCMC, and DOJ forecasts
This is unsolicited HARBOR research prepared from public sources for discussion with Chris Choby. It is not a deliverable under any executed engagement, contains analytical estimates, and should not be relied upon for investment, pricing, or business-development decisions. Statements attributed to Connected Logistics are drawn from public materials and have not been independently confirmed by the company.
The Big Picture: Defense Acquisition is Being Rewritten
Between April 2025 and May 2026, the federal acquisition system has undergone its most significant transformation in a generation. Three forces converge:
Fixed-Price Mandate
EO April 2026: FFP becomes default. $120B in cost-reimbursement consulting targeted. DLA already buying FFP.
Speed & Flexibility
EO April 2025 + SecWar Memo Mar 2025: Software pathway mandated. OTAs expanded. PAEs get direct contracting authority.
Army PAE Restructure
Oct 2025: 6 Portfolio Acquisition Executives replace program-centric PEOs with capability-area accountability.
Timeline Lens: What Just Happened vs. What's Coming (as of May 13, 2026)
This analysis was compiled from forecasts published between late 2025 and early 2026. Many deadlines have already passed. Here's the real-time view:
| Type | Event | Forecast Date | Status | Implication for CL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WON | NGT-II awards (W519TC25FA253/219) | FY25Q3 (Summer 2025) | Active delivery | Confirmed in CL award data. Product revenue flowing |
| WON | RF-ITV V recompete | FY25Q3 (Summer 2025) | Active. CL incumbent | Recompeted and retained. Validates ITV value |
| LIKELY WON | LITES IV (LDAC LITES IV) | Dec 2025 | Awarded Mar 2026 | $50M-$100M at ACC-RSA (Redstone). Connected Logistics appears to be the prime, based on the LDAC LITES IV hiring event (Feb 4, 2026) and ClearanceJobs PM requisitions tied to LOGC2. Official award announcement not yet posted publicly. |
| CLOSED | AH-64 Engineering Services IDIQ2 | Dec 2025 | Awarded Jan 2026 | ≥$250M. No set-aside. CL did not hold incumbent position. |
| CLOSED | AIT-7 Industry Day | May 19-21, 2025 | Passed. FY25Q4 solicitation | $50M-$80M Auto ID Technology. If CL did not attend, gate may be closed. |
| CLOSED | EAIP (Emerging AI Platform) | May 29, 2025 solicitation | Closed Jun 9, 2025. Awarded Mar 25, 2026. | PEO C3N (now restructured as CPE C3N under PAE construct). CL lists "PAE Command and Control" as a client. Should verify if they bid this requirement. |
| UPCOMING | Cyber Battle Lab Experimentation Support IDIQ | FY26 solicitation (ACC-APG) | Active / TBD | $50M-$100M. SDVOSB set-aside. Best Army SDVOSB opportunity for CL. |
| UPCOMING | ACES (Army Contracting Enterprise Services) | Dec 2025 solicitation | FY26 award window | $25M-$50M at ACC-APG. CL should have visibility into status |
| UPCOMING | G6 IT Support Services CASCOM | Jan 2026 solicitation | FY26 award | $25M-$50M at FDO Eustis. TRADOC. CL can bid via existing vehicles. |
| UPCOMING | BMx FoS Agile Services (Air Force) | 3QFY26 (Apr-Jun 2026) | Solicitation imminent | $41M-$50M, SB set-aside, NAICS 541511. 5-year PoP starting Jan 2027. |
| UPCOMING | Civil Engineer Systems (Air Force) | TBD | 8(a) competitive | NAICS 541519. CL could team with 8(a) partner. |
| UPCOMING | FY27 Army AMC Forecast | Expected Oct-Dec 2026 | Not yet published | Will refresh the full pipeline. CL should monitor ACC-RSA and ACC-RI. |
Critical Time-Sensitive Actions (as of May 26, 2026)
- LITES IV win signal. Public hiring data strongly suggests Connected Logistics won. Confirm officially and prepare the announcement timing.
- Confirm EAIP outcome. Awarded March 25, 2026 under PEO C3N (now CPE C3N). PAE C2 relationship should have opened this door. Verify whether LOGC2 bid and the result.
- Fixed-Price EO implementation clock. OMB guidance memo expected around June 14, 2026. FAR amendments proposed around August 28, 2026. Agency reviews of top-10 non-FFP contracts due around July 29, 2026. The AESMP SETA task order (W519TC24F0115, CR) is the one CR exposure in the portfolio worth watching.
- Monitor Cyber Battle Lab IDIQ. SDVOSB set-aside at ACC-APG. If solicitation is live, CL should bid aggressively.
- Track BMx FoS Agile Services. Air Force opportunity releasing in Q3FY26 (Apr-Jun 2026). Now is the time to position.
- Navy SeaPort-NxG on-ramp. No scheduled on-ramp. If one opens, this is the #1 vehicle to pursue.
Executive Orders: Direct Impact on Connected Logistics
April 30, 2026
EO: Promoting Efficiency, Accountability, and Performance in Federal Contracting
HIGH IMPACT. DIRECT TAILWIND. Fixed-price becomes the default procurement method. Cost-reimbursement requires agency-head approval. 90-day review of top 10 largest non-FFP contracts per agency. Connected Logistics already competes on FFP task orders via ITES-3S and DLA JETS (all active awards are FFP). DLA JETS 2.0 is FFP-heavy by design. This EO does not disrupt their model. It validates it. Law firm analyses (Mayer Brown, Wiley, Gibson Dunn, JD Supra) confirm: agencies now need written justification + senior approval for any non-FFP above $10M-$100M thresholds.
April 8, 2025
EO: Modernizing Defense Acquisitions and Spurring Innovation in the Defense Industrial Base
MEDIUM-HIGH. "Speed, flexibility, and execution" mandate. Expanded use of OTAs, MTA, and software acquisition pathways. Directly enables the Army PAE construct and faster contracting for Connected Logistics's SDVOSB status.
March 20, 2025
EO: Eliminating Waste and Saving Taxpayer Dollars by Consolidating Procurement
MEDIUM. Consolidation of procurement activities. Existing IDIQs (ITES-3S, JETS 2.0) are the consolidation vehicles, not the victims. OMB M-25-31 (June 2025) provided implementation guidance.
DOD Memoranda: From Public Domain
March 6, 2025 · SecWar Pete Hegseth
"Directing Modern Software Acquisition to Maximize Lethality"
HIGH IMPACT. Mandates use of the Adaptive Acquisition Framework's Software Acquisition Pathway for ALL software development procurements. Reverses the previous mix of traditional and adaptive approaches. Directly relevant to Connected Logistics's DevSecOps work (AIE Salesforce, RCAS-FMS). DFARS Class Deviation 2026-O0011 aligns DFARS 234 with this memo. Connected Logistics is already delivering software under ITES-3S. This memo creates demand they are positioned to meet.
November 10, 2025 · DoD
"Transforming the Defense Acquisition System into the Warfighting Acquisition System"
HIGH IMPACT. Comprehensive acquisition transformation strategy. Removes MTA bureaucracy. Aligns with Software Acquisition Pathway mandate. Connected Logistics's CMMC L2 certification and FFP experience position them for accelerated awards under streamlined pathways.
FY25-26 · DoD CIO
Software Modernization Implementation Plan FY25-26
MEDIUM. 2-year plan scaling enterprise cloud, DevSecOps platforms, and software factories. Creates demand for the exact services Connected Logistics already delivers under ITES-3S and DLA JETS.
The Army PAE Construct. Connected Logistics's Position
This is the single most important policy development for Connected Logistics.
The Army's October 2025 reorganization directly affects their existing client relationships and future pipeline. They already list "PAE Command and Control" as a client.
What Changed
The Army replaced program-centric PEOs with six Portfolio Acquisition Executives (PAEs), each accountable for an entire capability area. Each PAE owns requirements, S&T, contracting, testing, production, sustainment, and international sales. One leader controls everything. IOC: January 2026. Each PAE has an embedded Senior Contracting Official with direct award authority.
The Six PAEs
| PAE | Focus | Relevance to Connected Logistics |
|---|---|---|
| Fires | Artillery, missiles, indirect fire | Low |
| Maneuver Ground | Ground combat, tactical mobility | Low-Medium (tracking/ITV) |
| Maneuver Air | Aviation, air assault | Low |
| Command & Control / Counter C2 | C2 networks, cyber, electronic warfare | LISTED AS CLIENT |
| Agile Sustainment & Ammo | Logistics, ammunition, supply chains | CORE COMPETENCY ALIGNMENT |
| Layered Protection & CBRND | Air/missile defense, CBRN | Low |
PAE AS&A: The Direct Opportunity
PAE Agile Sustainment & Ammo (activated Jan 20, 2026, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ) oversees the Army's entire logistics and ammunition portfolio. Led by Maj. Gen. John T. Reim. Contains:
- CPE Combat Logistics (CPE CL). Brig. Gen. Camilla White, Detroit Arsenal, MI. 200+ programs (tactical vehicles, engineering, watercraft, power systems)
- CPE Ammunition & Energetics (CPE A&E). Col. Jason Bohannon, Picatinny Arsenal, NJ
- Embedded Senior Contracting Official. Can award contracts directly without bureaucratic bottlenecks
- $1.1 billion/year dedicated to overhauling ammo production infrastructure
Forrest Burke + PAE AS&A = Natural Alignment
Forrest Burke's 38-year Army logistics career. Including being the G-4 CTO who managed the $4B logistics IT portfolio. Gives Connected Logistics institutional credibility with the PAE construct. The company already lists "PAE Command and Control" as a client. PAE AS&A is the natural expansion path. Every logistics IT service Connected Logistics delivers maps directly to PAE AS&A's mission.
FAR / DFARS: Proposed & Final Rules
| Rule | Status | Impact on Connected Logistics |
|---|---|---|
| RFO (Revolutionary FAR Overhaul) | In Progress | Complete FAR rewrite. DFARS Class Deviation 2026-O0011 aligns DFARS 234 with software acquisition pathway. CMMC L2 certification is ahead of requirements. |
| CMMC Final Rule | Final | CMMC L2 required for all new DoD contracts handling CUI. Connected Logistics certified Oct 2025 (110/110 NIST controls MET per company release). Strong differentiation against competitors still working toward the requirement. |
| Small Business Size Standards | Proposed Increase | NAICS 541511/541512 proposed increase to ~$34M. Gives Connected Logistics more headroom before graduating out of small business status. |
| 8(a) Presumption Removal | Final (Jan 2026) | SBA removed presumption of social disadvantage. Individual narrative now required. Does NOT affect SDVOSB directly but shifts competitive landscape for 8(a) competitors. |
| FY2026 NDAA (P.L. 119-60) | Enacted | Various defense acquisition reforms including expanded SB set-aside flexibility. |
Procurement Forecast Matches: Deep Scan Results
Scanned 6 federal procurement forecast sources against Connected Logistics's NAICS codes and core keywords. Real data below. Not "pending."
1: Army Materiel Command FY2026 Acquisition Forecast. 1,829 Records
Source: amc-acquisition-forecast-jan-jun2026.xlsx (345.6 KB, downloaded from api.army.mil)
| Metric | Value | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Total Records | 1,829 | Across all AMC commands, PEOs, and contracting offices |
| NAICS 541330 (Engineering) | 17 records | Broad capability match |
| NAICS 541519 (IT Services) | 8 records | Core competency match |
| NAICS 541511 (Custom Programming) | 3 records | Software development match |
| NAICS 541512 (Systems Design) | 4 records | Systems engineering match |
| NAICS 334111 (Electronic Computer Mfg) | 3 records | Hardware product match |
| CL Total Relevant Records | 36 records | Direct NAICS matches |
| SDVOSB Set-Asides (All NAICS) | 9 records (0.5%) | Extremely limited. Army heavily favors other set-aside types |
| SB Set-Asides (All types) | 64 records (3.5%) | Small but meaningful |
| 8(a) Sole Source | 24 records | Alternative path for teaming |
| FFP Contracts | Dominant | Aligned with EO |
| ACC-RSA (Redstone Arsenal) | 263 records | Connected Logistics's backyard. HQ is Huntsville, AL |
| ACC-APG (Aberdeen Proving Ground) | 318 records | Major Army IT contracting hub |
| ACC-RI (Rock Island) | 130 records | PEO Enterprise / ITES-3S contracting |
Critical Army Findings for Connected Logistics
| Program | Value | Office | NAICS | Set-Aside | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGT-II (Next Generation Transponder) | $50M-$100M | ACC-RI | 334111 | No | Connected Logistics already has awards (W519TC25FA253/219) |
| RF-ITV V | <$150K listed | ACC-RI | 7G22 | No | RECOMPETE of W52P1J21F0039 (currently held by CL) |
| AIT-7 (Auto ID Technology) | $50M-$80M | ACC-RI | TBD | No | New requirement, Industry Day 5/19-5/21 |
| ARDAP SETA | $200M-$350M | ACC-RI | 541512 | No | Task Order, FY25Q3 solicitation |
| LITES IV RECOMPETE | $50M-$100M | ACC-RSA | 541519 | No | Redstone Arsenal. CL's home base |
| Army Contracting Enterprise Services (ACES) | $25M-$50M | ACC-APG | 541511 | No | Base + 4 options |
| G6 IT Support Services CASCOM | $25M-$50M | FDO Eustis | 541519 | No | TRADOC, FY26 solicitation |
| JMC Joint Network Engineers Re-Compete | $1M-$5M | 418th CSB | 541519 | No | HQ AFC, FY26 solicitation |
| AH-64 Engineering Services IDIQ2 | ≥$250M | ACC-RSA | 541330 | No | PEO Aviation, Jan 2026 award |
| Cyber Battle Lab Experimentation Support IDIQ | $50M-$100M | FDO Eustis | TBD | SDVOSB | AFC FCC, only relevant SDVOSB in forecast |
| Biometrics & Forensics CC Task Order | $50M-$100M | ACC-APG | 541519 | No | PEO IEWS, FY26 solicitation |
| MRC Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) | $50M-$100M | ACC-RSA | 541330 | No | PEO MS, Jan 2026 award |
| MAPS | ≥$250M | ACC-APG | 541330 | No | HQ AMC, Jan 2026 solicitation |
The SDVOSB Problem in Army Forecasts
Only 9 of 1,829 records (0.5%) in the Army AMC FY2026 forecast are SDVOSB set-asides. The Army's procurement culture heavily favors unrestricted competition, 8(a), and small business set-asides over SDVOSB-specific vehicles. Connected Logistics's SDVOSB status is a competitive advantage in the marketplace but not a procurement pathway in the Army. The exception: the Cyber Battle Lab Experimentation Support IDIQ ($50M-$100M, AFC FCC) is SDVOSB-set-aside and directly relevant to their cyber/network capability.
The LITES IV Recompete. In Their Backyard
LITES IV at ACC-RSA (Redstone Arsenal) was a $50M-$100M IT services recompete (NAICS 541519) with solicitation in December 2025 and award in March 2026. As of May 13, 2026, this award window has closed. Redstone Arsenal is 20 minutes from Connected Logistics's Huntsville HQ. This was the single most geographically and capability-aligned opportunity in the entire Army forecast. Action item: confirm with Chris whether CL bid and the outcome.
2. PEO Enterprise Procurement Forecast (May 2025)
Source: peo-enterprise-procurement-forecast-20250516-final.pdf
HISTORICAL This forecast covers FY25 (ended Sep 30, 2025). The solicitations and awards listed below are now in the past. Connected Logistics's actual award data (W519TC25FA253/219 for NGT-II) confirms the forecast was accurate.
PEO Enterprise manages the Army's enterprise IT systems. Including ITES-3S, the primary vehicle Connected Logistics uses. This forecast reveals what was anticipated in the pipeline at the time.
| Program | Value | Type | Solicitation | Award |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGT-II (Next Generation Transponder) | $50M-$100M | Contract | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
| RF-ITV V | <$150K | Contract | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
| AIT-7 (Auto ID Technology) | $50M-$80M | Contract | FY25Q4 | FY25Q4 |
| ARDAP DCOE APG SETA | $200M-$350M | Task Order | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
| GFEBS-DM Citrix Licenses | <$150K | Order | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
| LMP Shop Floor Visualization | $5M-$10M | Contract | FY25Q3 | FY25Q3 |
| HR Solutions GEN VI PLS IDIQ | >$1B | Contract | FY25Q4 | TBD |
| HR Solutions GEN VI RMAS IDIQ | >$1B | Contract | FY25Q4 | TBD |
3. Navy Combined Long Range Acquisition Estimate (LRAE). $351B Pipeline
| Metric | Value | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Total Records | 9,922 | Across 90+ Navy/USMC contracting offices |
| NAICS 541519 (IT Services) | 211 records | Core competency match |
| NAICS 541330 (Engineering) | 627 records | Broader capability match |
| SDVOSB Set-Asides | 38 records (<1%) | Very limited. Navy heavily favors sole-source to incumbents |
| SB Set-Asides (All types) | 1,371 records (14%) | Moderate opportunity, mostly 8(a) |
| FFP Contracts | 6,151 records (76%) | Aligned with EO and Connected Logistics's delivery model |
| Records < $2M | 5,671 (57%) | Small actions. Not a target for Connected Logistics's scale |
| Dominant Vehicle | SeaPort-NxG (2,965 delivery orders) | Connected Logistics does NOT hold SeaPort-NxG. This is the Navy access gap |
4. NAVSUP LRAE. $13.7B Pipeline
| Metric | Value | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Total Records | 3,381 | Supply Systems Command only |
| FY26 Awards | 1,143 records ($5.96B) | Immediate pipeline |
| NAICS 541519 (IT Services) | 14 records | Limited direct IT match |
| NAICS 541511 (Custom Programming) | 12 records | Software development match |
| NAICS 541512 (Systems Design) | 14 records | Systems engineering match |
| IT Cluster Total (541511/512/519) | ~40 records | Concentrated in Naval Information Warfare and base communications |
| PSC DA01 (IT App Dev) | 14 records | Direct capability match |
| SB Set-Asides | 81 records (~$1.1B) | Small but meaningful. Mostly base support |
| FFP Contracts | 853 records | Aligned with EO |
5. Air Force. AFLCMC Business & Enterprise Systems SMART Guide (Q3FY26)
Important Note: The Air Force does not publish a consolidated Long-Range Acquisition Estimate (LRAE) like the Navy. Instead, each Major Command (MAJCOM) and Center publishes its own forecast. The AFLCMC BES SMART Guide is one of the most comprehensive publicly available Air Force IT forecasts.
| Program | Value | Set-Aside | NAICS | Release | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMx FoS Agile Services | $41M-$50M | SB (SBEAS) | 541511 | 3QFY26 | IT sustainment + Agile dev for maintenance systems |
| Civil Engineer Systems | TBD | 8(a) Competitive | 541519 | TBD | Base ops IT. Aligns with CL's IMCOM/CE experience |
| DMSI / SSDA | $5M-$6M | No | 541511 | 4QFY26 | Depot maintenance systems integration |
| Medical Systems | $10M-$20M | SB | TBD | 4QFY26 | Health IT. Aligns with CL's MEDCHART + Canopy JV |
| ACPS | $4M-$5M | SB | TBD | 4QFY26 | Air Force personnel systems |
| Cisco GEMSS EA II | ~$600M | No | TBD | 4QFY26 | Enterprise network infrastructure. Too large for SB |
| IDECS | TBD | No | 541511 | TBD | Integrated Data Environment. Custom programming |
| ILS-S | TBD | SBEAS | TBD | TBD | Integrated Logistics Support. Systems |
| ERP CS | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | ERP Cyber Security |
| GFM-DI | TBD | SB | TBD | TBD | Global Force Management Data Initiative |
Air Force Opportunity Assessment
The Air Force BES portfolio shows 5 small business set-aside IT opportunities in the next 18 months (BMx, Civil Engineer, Medical, ACPS, GFM-DI). Combined value: ~$60M-$75M+. However, Connected Logistics has no Air Force past performance and no Air Force-specific vehicles (unlike their Army ITES-3S and DLA JETS positions). Chris Choby's Navy/USMC background doesn't directly transfer to Air Force. To access Air Force work, they would need to either: (1) team with an incumbent on a recompete, (2) win an OASIS+ task order, or (3) build Air Force relationships through their GSA Schedule.
6. DOJ FY2026 Contracting Opportunities Forecast. $19.6B
| Metric | Value | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Total Records | 506 | 8 bureaus (FBI, DEA, ATF, BOP, USMS, etc.) |
| NAICS 541519 (IT Services) | #1 ranked. 76 records | Highest-match opportunity. IT dominates DOJ's professional services |
| IT Total Value | $1.62B | Substantial addressable market |
| FFP Contracts | 411 records (81%) | Perfectly aligned with EO + Connected Logistics model |
| SB Set-Asides | 137 records (27%, ~$6.1B) | Strong small business opportunity |
| Recompete Rate | 72% | Incumbent-rich. Hard to break in without past performance |
| GSA/GWAC Vehicles | 71 records (14%) | Connected Logistics has GSA Schedule + OASIS+. Vehicle access exists |
DOJ as a Diversification Play
DOJ's forecast shows 76 IT services records (NAICS 541519. #1 by count) worth $1.62B, with 81% FFP and 27% small business set-aside. Connected Logistics has GSA Schedule (GS-35F-0204X) and OASIS+. The vehicles that DOJ uses. This is a viable diversification path away from DLA concentration, but requires relationship-building since 72% are recompetes with named incumbents.